Abstract for:The Drivers of Livestock Productivity in Nigeria

This study developed a system dynamics model of the drivers influencing livestock productivity in Nigeria. These drivers include feed, pasture, labour, livestock capital, GDP per capita, domestic demand. The objective of this study was to predict productivity levels in the livestock sector in the face of varying budgetary restrictions in feed and pasture. National data on several livestock variables were collected from various secondary sources including FAO and the World Bank.  The data was analysed using descriptive statistics, linear regression and sensitivity analysis, while the model was built and analysed using the traditional process of stock and flow model building, starting with variable identification and diagramming and proceeding to quantitative model creation and simulation. The scenario simulation of 40% decrease in feed and pasture showed that productivity level rises by 49% and 22% respectively at the end of the simulation period. Also, the scenario simulation of a 40% increase in feed and pasture shows an increase in livestock productivity by 81% and 123% respectively.  Future research that focuses on using non-linear coefficients and incorporating of drivers from forward or horizontal linkage systems including crop production and balancing feedback loops in model analysis is being proposed.

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