Abstract for:Simulating the efficient diffusion of photovoltaics: an urban metabolism approach

Urban metabolism has been proven as a suitable methodology to evaluate the environmental performance of cities. Bogotá, the most important city of Colombia, has had a very low solar photovoltaic (PV) technology adoption. In this work, several possible PV technology adoption paths in the city have been generated, using a system dynamics model that takes into account the residential, commercial, industrial and institutional sectors of the city. Bass and Logit models have been used to simulate the technology adoption and choice making processes. According to our results, policies are necessary to encourage awareness of consumers and 44% of their electricity demand could be met with the use of solar panels in 2050, which would also entail reductions in greenhouse gases of 820,000 t of CO2 per year. Adoption rates in the residential sector of even 26% could be possible, which in turn would represent an installed capacity of 1.5GW, and reductions in emissions of even 450,000 t CO2 per year. Additionally, the commercial sector could reach a potential installed capacity of 1.2GW. Conversely, industrial and institutional sectors could reach an installed capacity of 10MW and 70MW, respectively.