Abstract for:Systems modelling as an approach for understanding and building consensus on non-communicable diseases (NCD) management in Cambodia

This paper describes the insights gained in developing a preliminary dynamic non communicable disease (NCD) simulation model with stakeholders in Cambodia.  This exercise was undertaken as a first step for generating credible estimates to make an investment case for the prevention and management of NCDs. Stakeholder engagement was facilitated through the use of a Group Model Building (GMB) approach.  This approach combines various techniques in order to gain a whole system perspective. Results from the study suggest that: due to population growth, the number of people developing NCDs will continue to grow even if a moderate decrease in the baseline incidence rate occurs. In addition, increasing screening of NCDs without treatment (i.e. no significant increase in resources for the management of NCDs)—all other things being equal—will lead to identification of many more people with NCDs, and a likely increase in people with NCDs seeking treatment (using existing resources). Policies that focus on screening with treatment—all other things being equal—will increase treatment volume, and prevalence of NCDs (as treatment tends to keep individuals with NCDs in the stable state for longer periods thereby decreasing the probability of death). Combined policies—focusing on a large reduction in the baseline incidence rate and screening