Abstract for:Analysis of the Dynamic Developments in the Local Lodging and Rental Housing Market in Lisbon

The housing market in Lisbon is undergoing rapid change. Following the liberalisation of the rental market in Lisbon, the market is experiencing unprecedented dynamics in the real-estate sector. While many formerly vacant buildings get renovated, the housing supply for long-term rentals decreases and rental prices are increasing rapidly. Matters were complicated further by the fact that tourist lodging is booming in the recent years and hence increases the competition of living spaces in the city. The conducted research applies a System Dynamics approach to investigate and find plausible dynamic reasons for the recent development of the rental housing market in Lisbon. Particularly, the model analyzes the market relations between long-term rental housing and short-term tourist lodging. Reviewing literature, interviewing experts, analyzing the national statistics and quantifying assumptions allowed the development of a stock-and-flow model to simulate and replicate the market dynamics of the last 40 years. The analysis of scenarios and policies suggest that mainly the residential attractiveness of the city center leads to the exponential price development while the possibilities of local lodging make the system more resistant against regulations.