Abstract for: Simulating the long-term or the short-term? Dare we do both? Lessons from Policy Simulations in the Electric Power Industry
This paper deals with the choice of reference modes in system dynamics modeling. Do we aim for a simulation of long-term dynamics, or should we focus on the short term? A common suggestion is to face up to this difficult question and not be diverted by the illusion that you can do both. This paper explores a new direction by describing methods to simulate long-term and short-term dynamics in a coordinated manner. The methods emerged during three studies of the power industry. Each study focused on important policy issues at the time, and each study required simulations of short-term and long-term dynamics. The policy findings summarized here provide background on the methodological challenges. The methods described here will be useful to those who dare to include dramatically different time dynamics in their simulations.