Abstract for: Water Consumption Impact under Climate and Population Scenarios

Population growth and climate change have significantly altered water regimes. The challenge of managing water for increasingly populous and consumption under climatic uncertainties calls for a comprehensive framework of analysis that incorporates environmental and socioeconomic factors. This study aims to measure the potential water use impact under different scenarios associated with the change of climate and population using Minnesota as a studied case. A water use impact indicator was employed for quantifying the interaction between water demand and supply at a watershed level. A stochastic modeling framework coupling system dynamic models with geographic information system was adopted to accommodate the analysis. The simulation process enables us to understand the magnitude of climate and anthropogenic water use which on affecting water use impact potential under each defined scenario. The results indicate that population change is a more powerful force than climate in changing state-level water use impact. However, the temporal water use impact dynamics are primarily regulated by climate. Water management must take a four-dimension strategy integrating climate, population, time, and location into account in sustaining future water resources.