Abstract for: How to cope with the European migrant crisis? Exploring the effects of the migrant influx in Bayern, Germany

Recently, Germany has experienced a huge influx of migrants. Most of these migrants enter Germany through the federal state of Bayern. The asylum procedure in Bayern has various bottlenecks at which migrants accumulate. This accumulation causes a lot of problems and increases local tensions, which in turn affects citizens and policy makers in both Bayern and the rest of Germany. This paper presents a system dynamics model with the purpose of identifying these bottlenecks and understanding their influence on the tensions among local citizens. In addition, it proposes a few policy measures which can streamline the process and thereby reduce tensions in Bayern. According to our findings, the biggest problems are caused by the slow outflow of migrants waiting in initial aid facilities for a more permanent residence to become available. The policy suggestions we propose performed robust under a wide range of parameter values. Moreover, they were able to reduce the average tension level by a factor of almost two.