Abstract for: A System dynamics approach to assess economic impacts of extreme winter storms in forestry

In forest management practices, assessment of dynamic impacts of extreme storms before the events occur would help in many ways, e.g., to assign marketing strategies or to optimise risk management plans, etc. This paper investigates the economic impacts of a stochastic extreme winter storm on the forest resources in Baden-Württemberg, Germany. Therefore, a system dynamics modelling approach coupled with Geographic Information System (GIS) is developed by considering theories of forest economics and simulating forest management related practices. The forestry sector is divided into five submodels to run the reference simulation in all the 44 districts in Baden-Württemberg. The economic impacts can thus be calculated and compared - at different simulation years or by discounting back the future values at present time for each district. The overall modelling approach and the results can help public and private forest owners to understand what the possible impacts would be, especially regarding the decisions on salvage operation and forest management.