Abstract for: Modelling and simulation the Zika Outbreak under Deep Uncertainty: A Multi-Method Multi-Resolution Approach

The rise of microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome cases in areas in the Americas that are hit by the ongoing recent Zika outbreak has alarmed the global community. Health authorities worldwide are urged to take effective action to prevent further spreading, while only having sparse and uncertain information on the problem and the consequences of potential solutions. SD is a powerful tool in providing fast yet insightful analysis on pressing problems, however some key aspects of these problems cannot be addressed by this method alone. In our work we aim to explore plausible scenarios for a worldwide local transmission of the disease. Therefore, we design a geo-spatially explicit simulation model, fed by a geographic information system (GIS). Furthermore, we designed entity-based model object for each region with a hybrid ABM SD approach that allows to switch during runtime between system representations. Once the number of interacting individuals has passed a specified threshold, the model switches from ABM to SD. This approach allows to reduce computational requirements dramatically without conceding on disaggregated details where this is of explicit interest - as it is in the initial local transmission in a new region.