Abstract for: Containing ISIS: Analysis of Intervention Policies

This paper builds upon a previous dynamic hypothesis that the Islamic State is an emerging state actor with an analysis of intervention policies that aim to contain or reduce ISIS’s performance. A review of existing literature on simulation modeling of insurgencies identifies that application of parameterized simulations to current conflicts is limited in system dynamics. The paper contributes to the literature by leveraging a robust simulation model parameterized to ISIS in Iraq & Syria. Six separate policies are tested first in isolation and under ideal conditions, then in combination with operational constraints. Insights of the resulting dynamics as well as importance of timing windows are discussed. This paper’s contributions are an attempt to apply system dynamics simulations to real-world current problems, generate insights into the dynamics of emerging-state actors and intervention strategies, and demonstrate utility for future application with other scenarios involving insurgents or emerging-state actors. Keywords: ISIS, ISIL, DAESH, insurgency, conflict, security, non-state actor, emerging-state actor, intervention, policy analysis