Abstract for: A System Dynamics Approach for Assessing the Development of the CEP market in Urban Areas

The overarching objective of the project is to link a System Dynamics (SD) model with a microscopic freight transport simulation. By this approach the freight demand of private households and retailers and the resulting freight transport demand of CEP services are examined as well as efficient solutions to regulate this freight transport demand are identi-fied. This approach mutually uses the forecast capability of SD and the detailed resolution of microscopic agent-based transport simulation in this case MATSim. The SD model developed is able to assess the development of the courier-, express- and package market (CEP market) in urban areas in the course of time. In this paper, the authors present the current version of the quantitative SD model, which explicitly shows the internal structures of and the interdependencies between population and economy as freight demanders and the CEP services as freight transport providers.