Abstract for: A retrospective of System Dynamics based workforce modelling at the Centre for Workforce Intelligence

This paper presents a historical reflection on the application of System Dynamics for health and social care workforce modelling at the Centre for Workforce Intelligence. Between July 2010 and March 2016 the CfWI was a key contributor to the planning of future workforce requirements for health and care in England. The Department of Health, as well as Health Education England and Public Health England, engaged the CfWI to inform national and local workforce planning and policy decisions. Initially the CfWI used MS Excel to develop their workforce models. These models were based on standard System Dynamics concepts such as stocks, flows, delays and feedback. However, Excel was not ideal for developing complex models with large amounts of segmentation and complex training pipelines. It was also not easy to maintain or extend the models. In 2012 CfWI transitioned to using System Dynamics software for much of its modelling work, and aligned its development approach with the System Dynamics method. This paper discusses the transition to System Dynamics based modelling, the impact that the System Dynamics based studies had, and lessons learn from building a System Dynamics capability.