Abstract for: Identification and Registration of Refugees: Model-Based Planning at the Dutch Police

The refugee crisis in the Middle East drives people to Europe and to the Netherlands hoping to find a safe haven. Once in the Netherlands, traditionally a welcoming country for people in distress, these asylum-seekers have to report to the authorities. People are then accommodated, identified, registered and it is decided whether they are genuine refugees and are allowed to stay, or alternatively that they have to leave the country. This is called the asylum procedure. In this paper a system dynamics model of the asylum procedure is developed to explore the system by means of different future scenarios with a focus on the effects for the Dutch National Police. The effects of the recent agreement between the European Union (EU) and Turkey are explored, and so are the intended extra safety measures. The main conclusion is that the system is inadequate to cope with the current refugee crisis. If the crisis keeps it’s current proportions - and no changes are made to the system - it will take several years to eliminate the backlogs.