Abstract for: On the Spot and On the Map: Real-Time Interactive Model-Based Decision Support Under Deep Uncertainty
In this paper, we apply two exploratory System Dynamics modelling and simulation approaches to provide both on the spot and on the map model-based policy-support in workshop settings as well as in-depth model-based policy-support for urgent crisis-like issues. The application area is the 2015-2016 refugee crisis in Europe. The two main contributions of this work relate to the workshop setting approach: we focus on two recent contributions we believe are crucial for the successful use of modelling to support policy-making workshops, namely (i) an approach to quickly generate subsets of scenarios that are representative for large ensembles of scenarios, and (ii) dynamic geospatial animations. In the case of the European refugee crisis, we developed interactive maps of Europe that show the refugee flows, the political stress, and other key performance indicators evolve dynamically over time.