Abstract for: The decline of fisheries in Japan described by a simple dynamic model

Fisheries have been a historical playground for dynamic models involving depletion and resource overexploitation, inspiring Vito Volterra in the development of what was probably the first system dynamic model of resource depletion. The model is known today as the Lotka-Volterra (LV) model. In the present paper, we examine the specific case of the Japanese fisheries by means of a simple dynamic system based on the original LV model. We assume that the prey is the fish stock and the predator is an aggregated parameter that takes into account the capital stock of the fishing industry, introducing in the model innovative elements beyond the populations of predators and prey. The results confirm those of earlier work (Ugo Bardi & Lavacchi, 2009) on the behavior of the 19th century whale fishery and show that the LV model can be used for the quantitative description of a real-world model.