Abstract for: Implication of urbanisation on electricity provision in African cities: A system dynamics approach

The provision of electricity to urban population in Africa is an immediate and future challenge. Continuing rapid urbanisation overwhelm the provision of electricity, particularly to the urban poor, who are mainly living in informal settlements. In examining the implication of urbanisation on electricity requirements, it is thus essential to not only evaluate electricity in technical terms, but also to consider the context of the social, political, economic and environmental system in which urbanisation is taking place. This paper utilises system dynamics to examine the implication of urbanisation on electricity provision in four African cities, namely: Cape Town, Lagos, Accra and Nairobi. It takes into account the contexts that characterise these cities, particularly, the informal economy which is mostly excluded from electricity planning processes. While the simulation outputs are currently being tested and validated, the preliminary results already shows the importance of accounting for the informal economy and establishing polices that are relevant to these environments, if the goal of Sustainable Energy for All (SE4A) is to be achieved.