Abstract for: Projecting the number of elderly with Cognitive Impairment in China by 2060 using a multi-state dynamic population model

BACKGROUND: China, home to the world’s largest population is aging rapidly, and the number of demented Chinese elderly is expected to rise at an unprecedented rate. This paper projects, up to the year 2060, the number of Chinese elderly of four distinct cognitive states. METHODS: A multi-state population model was developed using system dynamics and parameterized with age-gender-specific transition probabilities (between intact, mild, moderate and severe cognitive impairment and death) estimated from two waves (2012 and 2014) of a community-based cohort of elderly in China aged ≥65 years (N=1,824). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis and the bootstrap method was used to obtain the 95% confidence interval of the transition probabilities. RESULTS: The number of elderly with all degrees of cognitive impairment increases; with severe cognitive impairment increasing the most, at 743%. Among the elderly with cognitive impairment, the proportion of old-old elderly (age ≥80) is expected to rise from 53% to 78% by 2060. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that the number of cognitively impaired elderly will continue to increase steadily, with the severe cognitive impairment proportion increasing most significantly. This will have huge impact on the demand for social and health services in the country.