Abstract for: An Analysis of Population Policies in China

This paper examines the impact of various population policies in China. The investigation involves the identification of relevant factors, the establishment of causal relationships between the factors and the building of a causal loop diagram, and subsequently the converting of the causal loop diagram into a stock and flow diagram, upon which simulations can be run using the software iThink. Data have been collected from newspapers, published reports, and official government websites. The results obtained from the simulation reveal that the newly implemented two-child policy will most likely be ineffective in alleviating the issue of ageing population in China. Sensitivity analysis is carried out to identify potential points of intervention, targeting which the group is able to devise two other measures that the Chinese government may consider adopting. Both measures are proven effective in increasing Actual Fertility Rate, and also in slowing down the increase in Aged Dependency Ratio. With this, it is recommended that the Chinese government introduce alternative measures, such as giving cash bonus to families that give birth to a second child, or implementing policies that reduce the cost of healthcare services, in order to ensure that its population is productive, and continues to be so in the future.