Abstract for: Energy Modeling of Danish Housing Stock Using System Dynamics

Improvement of energy efficiency will play a crucial role in future energy consumption in buildings. This study presents a dynamic building stock model, which captures building vintage effects on total energy consumption for space heating demand as well as behavioral dynamics associated with the implementation of retrofitting measures. Calibrating the model to the Danish housing stock, five policy scenarios are evaluated in terms of total energy consumption and total costs. Results show that implementation of cost-effective measures result in 11.0% reduction in energy consumption compared to a BAU scenario for space heating by 2100. Implementation of mandatory measures that are cost-ineffective can increase energy savings by 3.3%, while incentives can only affect the timing of retrofitting and not the amount of saved energy. Restricting the rebound effect was found to be an effective policy (23.4% reduction in 2100). Total energy savings increase to 48% in 2100, when a tight building regulation is introduced in 2020. In conclusion our results illustrate that significant reduction in energy use can be achieved by combining incentive-based policies and building regulations, but at an additional cost that is driven by the “free rider” effect. Therefore, the estimated costs should be interpreted cautiously.