Abstract for: Clean and secure power supply: SD-based appraisal of risks, opportunities and challenges

One of the major concerns of policy makers in the power industry is both security of supply and low electricity cost to consumers, especially nowadays with a larger share of renewable energies worldwide (e.g. solar PV and wind energy). In this context, system reliability might be in conflict with economic efficiency and/or environmental protection, thus increasing problem complexity. This paper uses system dynamics modelling to analyse policy that aims at increasing the penetration of renewables and how these energies affect system reliability. In this context, and given multiple uncertainties that include the evolution of technology and its capital cost, scenario analysis has been considered for investigating different, extreme, though plausible futures. Simulations, under extreme scenarios, help in assessing the effects of policy incentives to solar PV and wind technologies in current electricity markets. This paper concludes that for the Colombian case, the potential of renewable energies seems promising, given the fast learning curves of these technologies and their particular complementarity