Abstract for: A Systems Thinking approach to the analysis of economic impacts related to transportation shutdowns: the ATTACS project

Closing down a transportation system for one or more days due to potential terrorist attacks is not a measure that decision-makers tend to take lightly. However, despite its importance, the EU currently has no common framework or organization to deal with such issues in transportation. The ATTACS project aims at providing a tool to help decision-makers evaluating the effects (direct, indirect and in economic terms) of a public transportation system closedown. The aim of this paper is to present an initial qualitative mapping to frame the problem. The used approach is System Dynamics, since it offers several advantages for our goals in comparison to other methodologies. The ATTACS project will account for effects in different sectors (transportation, economy, business and the public), across different time horizons (short- and long-term), across different spatial dimensions and for different types of events (terrorist attacks or threats). The provided CLDs are an initial evaluation of those effects and how they are/might be related. The final objective of the ATTACS project is to create a Decision Support System to facilitate decision-makers reaching better decisions on a subject that cannot be easily specified in advance, can change rapidly and its effects can be cascading and of great magnitude.