Abstract for: Forest Area and Land Use Change in Pakistan: A System Dynamics Approach

Forest area in Pakistan is very low while deforestation rate is one of the highest in Asia. The present study is an attempt to study forest area depletion through system dynamics approach. Deforestation is studied through drivers of change in forest area and forest yield. The effects of change in major land use categories; cultivated area, built up area and rangeland area are observed in relation to the change in forest area over the past two decades from 1990 to 2010. The trends in land use change are then used for projecting the change in forest area in the coming three decades. Desirable rates of change in selected drivers of deforestation are determined through system dynamics to achieve the targets set in the national policy goals.