Abstract for: Modeling Ophthalmologists requirements for an aging population

Evidence-based manpower planning is often lacking even in developed countries with robust health care systems. As many developed countries face population aging, population growth and increasing life expectancy, eye disease and demand for eye care is likely to increase. The purpose of this paper is to project, by 2040, the demand for and supply of the eye care workforce comprising ophthalmologists and medical officers for Singapore, under plausible future scenarios, using the systems modeling methodology of system dynamics. The results from the analysis suggest that the number of Singaporean residents aged 40 years and older with eye diseases is projected to almost double by 2040 with glaucoma, other eye conditions, AMD and cataracts estimated to increase the most. Accordingly, the demand/utilization of eye care services is conjectured to rise significantly under all the scenarios considered. Hence, the demand for ophthalmologists and medical officers is in turn expected to increase.