Abstract for: The Nonlinear Simulation of adolescent Obesity Using System Dynamics

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to develop a system dynamics model for adolescent obesity in the Korea that can be used for obesity policy analysis. Methods: On the basis of the casual loop diagram, a model was developed by converting to stock and flow diagram. The Vensim DSS 5.0 program were used model development. We simulated method of moments to the calibration of this model with 2005-2013 The Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey data. We have run the scenario simulation. Results: This model can be used to understand the current adolescent obesity rate, predict the future obesity rate, and utilized as a tool for controlling the risk factor. The results of the model simulation match well with data. It was identified that a proper model able to predict obesity probability was established. Conclusion: These results of stock and flow diagram modeling in adolescent obesity can be helpful to develop of obesity policy planners and other stakeholders to better anticipate the multiple effects of interventions in both the short and the long term. Therefore we should develop expansion model based on this adolescent obesity model.