Abstract for: A Simulation Model of Katouzianís Theory of Arbitrary State and Society
This paper represents an initial effort to model the volatile behavior of Iranís socio-political-economic system. More specifically, Homa Katouzianís theory of Iranian political economyóa well-established descriptive theory of Iranís unstable economic developmentóis translated into a system dynamics model, tested for internal consistency, and used for policy analysis. Simulation results confirm Katouzianís claim that periodic episodes of significant arbitrary power are key to understanding the historically less-than-optimal behavior of the Iranian socioeconomic system. They also confirm the significance of oil revenue, economic sanctions, and civil resistance on Iranian economic development. Of note is that experimentation with the model reveals that educational policies that generate increased respect for the law by Iranian citizens can significantly improve the behavior of the Iranian socioeconomic system. The paper concludes with suggestions for future research.