Abstract for: What are the Water Resources Scenarios in future? SD-based Water Resource Carrying Capacity Modeling in China

Water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) is a foundational topic and the foundational measurement of water resources security. The dynamic water resources prediction is a key for the overall city strategic planning. In this study, an integrated dynamic model of water consumption was developed using system dynamics (SD) and based on water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) theory. In order to make a feasible and cost-efficient water strategy for China, we first introduce the definition of WRCC, which will help us to understand the next part about System Dynamics model. After building the mathematic model, with the system dynamic simulation by the software of Vensim, we calculate the model and analysis the result with different sub-systems, such as (1) the population sub-system, (2) agriculture water demand (AWD), (3) the second industrial water demand (SIWD) , (4) the third industrial water demand (TIWD) and (5) the water demand for daily life (WDDL). At the last part, we make a conclusion of the result of different scenarios of water resources carrying capacity till 2025 in the future of China, which is useful for policy-making of water security.