Abstract for: System Dynamics in New Product Forecasting: Collaborative Use of Patient Based Forecast Model for an Oncology Drug

This paper presents a solution with a System Dynamics model structure for a prototypic new cancer drug embedded in a corporate intranet for collaborative use of a restricted community. Patient flows modelled with SD overcome the limitations of classical spread sheet models that are observed at incidence based oncology models. Furthermore, SD combined with a web client not only provides the opportunity to work collaboratively but also to use them for business simulations in a multinational business environment. The SD model is segmented into 3 lines of therapy. Further lines can easily be added aided by the modular design. The model contains modules for competition, cross line reduction (probability of drug reuse in the subsequent treatment line), early access (so called compassionate use)e and for converting drug use into revenue. The latter is the prerequisite for determining the commercial value of the new drug by finance teams, e.g. by calculating expected profit and loss (P&Ls) and net present value (NPV).