Abstract for: From Modelling Uncertain Surprises to Simulating Black Swans

Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis is useful for dealing with dynamically complex issues that are also characterized by deep uncertainty. So far, this approach has not been used for uncertain surprises or recognized ignorance, aka black swans. It could nevertheless be stretched to issues, systems and analyses beyond deep uncertainty. Combining (System Dynamics) modelling and simulation approaches, cross-impact approaches, Exploratory Modelling and Analysis, adaptive sampling techniques, and time series classification may help to turn potential black swans into grey swans. This new multi-method approach, which extends the Exploratory System Dynamics approach to the boundary of recognized ignorance, will be illustrated on a current/recent issues, namely the Ebola epidemic in West Africa and the development of Ebola drugs and vaccines.