Abstract for: A System Dynamics Approach to Simulating the South African Forestry & Logging Sector’s Electricity Demand

The focus of this paper is the development of a simulation model to engage with and interrogate the key driving forces affecting the electricity requirements of South Africa’s forestry and logging sector, using a system dynamics approach. The objective of the model is to project the sector’s electricity demand from 1992-2040 to facilitate dynamic sensitivity analysis that will allow for a better understanding of this complex system of many interacting variables and assist a South African electricity utility in planning for future electricity demand. This paper will discuss the development of a model boundary chart, system architecture maps, a causal loop diagram, structural simulation development in iSee STELLA®, and results generated from selected scenarios.