Abstract for: Exploration of the Growing Trend of Electric Vehicles in Beijing based on SD model
This research is conducted to explore the growing trend of private vehicles in Beijing in the coming 25 years based on the system dynamics (SD) method. First, the paper introduces the background about the private vehicles in Beijing and analyzes the traffic congestion and air pollution caused by them. Second, qualitative analysis is done to explore what possible policies the Beijing government can adopt to increase the percentage of EV and control the number of total private vehicles at the same time and a causal diagram is drawn to facilitate the way of thinking. Third, a quantitative SD model about the system is built based on the causal diagram and qualitative analysis. Finally, the SD model is used to explore the plausible future trend about private vehicles and study the implications of different policies.