Abstract for: Analyzing counter-terrorism and asymmetric conflict policies by means of a system dynamics approach

The aim of our research is to analyze the development of some Islamic terror groups, by means of System Dynamics (SD). SD is a qualitative and quantitative methodology that helps analyzing complex systems, characterized by feedback mechanisms between actions taken by a decision maker and the reactions that the system manifests over time. After building a possible model accounting for the development dynamics common to some Islamic groups of terror, we will first analyze traditional counter-terrorism actions and their effectiveness in terms of resolution of threat (we will refer to these traditional counter-terrorism measures like “tactics”). Subsequently, our analysis will focus on a proposal for "strategic" counter-terrorism actions, in order to show the differences between tactical and strategic actions in terms of resolution of threat. We will also show how strategic measures, through the exchange of data and information between countries, will help in containing and isolating different groups, rather than contrasting them in their direct illegal activities.