Abstract for: Calibration with Vensim

In this hands-on workshop we will explore model calibration in Vensim. To get some insight into the fundamentals of the process, we will begin with a discussion of likelihood and hand calibrate a model, using synthetic data. Then we will repeat the process, using the built-in functionality of Vensim. Finally, we will illustrate a variety of advanced techniques: Poisson and Bernoulli distributions that arise with individual or event data, state estimation with Kalman filtering, Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Bayesian estimation with priors.