Abstract for: Estimating the Effect of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Nile River in the 21st Century
The purpose of this study is to employ estimates of precipitation and temperature changes from a large number of General Circulation Models (GCMs) in order to estimate the potential effect of climate change on the carrying capacity (volume) of the Nile River throughout the 21st Century. We employ estimates from 33 General Circulation Models (GCM), inclusive of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, within a Vensim model in order to model the dynamic interplay between climate change and river hydrology. We subdivided the time periods into 30-year intervals for 2010-2039 (early century), 2040-2069 (mid century), and 2070-2099 (late century). Our analysis offers several key findings. First, precipitation is likely to increase throughout the Nile River Basin with the possible exception of Egypt. Second, temperature is likely to increase throughout the Nile River Basin with the most pronounced increases in Sudan. Third, the effect of climate change on the Nile River is likely to result in a net decrease throughout the basin with the possible exception of the Blue Nile. The value of these findings is then discussed within a broader agenda.