Abstract for: Foresight and System Dynamics for modelling the dynamics of Organizational Knowledge

The loss of organizational knowledge due to the departure of skilled staff generates negative impacts on both an organization's productivity and its functional capacity to understand the key strategies and actions necessary to achieve stated goals. In order to identify, understand and model the factors likely to be involved in the causes and impacts of the loss of organizational knowledge, this article examines the dynamics of knowledge processes in a Project Management Office of the Brazilian Aeronautical Command, which is responsible for the implementation of complex aeronautical projects in Brazil. Presented here is a dynamic model based on concepts from Nonaka and Takeuchi’s “Theory of Organizational Knowledge Creation”, and on Michel Godet´s methodology for identifying key variables within Strategic Foresight Studies. The model enables the simulation of diverse scenarios in which are represented the consequences of changes in key variables of influence. The work concludes with a discussion of concerns and opinions that could facilitate the formulation of policy and active intervention aimed at minimizing the unwanted impacts that result from the loss of an abstract entity known as organizational knowledge.