Abstract for: Analyzing Electric Vehicle Diffusion Scenarios for Istanbul
In this study, a dynamic simulation model for electric vehicle (EV) diffusion is constructed. The objective of this work is to investigate the question; what are the plausible diffusion patterns of electric vehicles for Istanbul under different scenarios developed considering both local and global socio-economic, governmental, technological factors and their interaction with each other? The results show that diffusion of battery electric vehicle (BEV) and hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) would likely reach around 19.76% and 20.77% respectively by 2042 in Istanbul. In addition, CO2 reduction in the transportation sector would only reach around 17.32% in 2042. Moreover, both gasoline and electricity cost influence EV diffusion. However, their impact on EV diffusion is mainly related with a mobility cost gap between gasoline and electricity. Furthermore, technological improvement would lead BEV sales to increase. Contrary to expectations, even if no technological improvements were progressed, BEVs would still likely succeed to penetrate around 10% of the market with its current technology within the 30 years. Both marketing activities and word of mouth have a remarkable impact on rapid EV diffusion. Subsidies would have a small impact on EV sales. Finally, BEV and HEV may inhibit sales of each other.