Abstract for: The Challenges of the French Electricity Generation Sector: an Analysis using ESDMA

Nuclear energy dependency, large vulnerability to socio-political factors, high wind and solar energy targets and progressive liberalization of the energy sector; those are some of the main challenges the French electricity sector is currently facing. This paper uses the multi-method Exploratory System Dynamics Modeling and Analysis to explore the future of the French electricity generation sector given its unique specificity and the wide range of deep uncertainties that this market contains. This methodology then allows the exploration of the complex interaction between socio-political parameters and the support for new nuclear energy installed capacity, for example as a result of a nuclear accident. The model used for this research was created by Pruyt, et al. (Energy Transitions towards Sustainability: A Staged Exploration of Complexity and Deep Uncertainty, 2011) and has been adapted to reflect the specific dynamics of the French electricity generation sector.