Abstract for: Equivalent System Dynamics Model for Reliability Assessment

This paper proposes the use of an Equivalent Systems Dynamics Model (ESDM) to model a Nonhomogeneous Continuous-Time Markov Chain (NH-CTMC). An ESDM represent the Markov Model (MM) by means of the language and the tools of the Systems Dynamics (SD), and the results are obtained by simulation. In this case we used the example of the reliability assessment of a Repairable Multi-State System (RMSS) by means of a (NH-CTMC). In these cases the failure and repair rates are time-varying and the NH-CTMC is needed to be considered. Nevertheless, for these models the analytical solution may not exist and the use of others techniques are required. As an example, an RMSS with three components, failure rates associated with the Weibull distribution and repair rates associated with the Log-logistic distribution is developed. This example serves to identify the advantages and disadvantages of an ESDM to make model a RMSS and evaluate some reliability measures.