Abstract for: A Dynamic Analysis of Socio-Technical Transition towards Bio-Economy

Bio-economy is a complex socio-technical system undergoing rapid change. There is a significant risk of not achieving the full potential of bio-economy due to suboptimal solutions, and therefore a system dynamics model applied to analyse transformation from fossil based economy into bio based economy is introduced. The model is based on interviews conducted with Finnish bio-economy stakeholders, literature review, and VTT bio-economy experts. The purpose of the model is to act as an interaction and dissemination enabler as well as evaluation and specification tool for stakeholders and a basis for further research. Contribution of this paper is to analyse the interconnections and feedback structures of fossil and bio-economies. These two economies are co-existing side by side, fossil-economy being currently the dominant one. However, there is significant political will on national and EU level to shift towards bio-economy. This idea is mainly driven by the climate change, i.e. need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Interviews show that there is a wide understanding concerning the importance of bio-economy, however, something is lagging or preventing the transition. The purpose is to analyse restrictions hindering and enablers accelerating the transition.