Abstract for: A Patient Flow Model of Singapore’s Healthcare System

Objective: To develop an evidence-based dynamic model to simulate the likely impact of different supply-side and demand-side interventions on hospital admissions, wait times, and bed occupancy rates for acute hospitals and community-hospitals. Data Sources: Demographic and population data and 2012 Singapore Yearbook of Statistics on health from Singapore Department of Statistics, as well as estimates from physician researchers. Study Design: The patient flow model was created using system dynamics methodology and parameterized using available data from reports. Principal Findings: Due to population aging, between 2014 and 2030, the number of hospital admissions in Singapore is projected to increase 65 percent. By 2030, 58 percent of the admissions are expected to comprise elderly individuals 65 years of age and older. Consequently, wait times for admission to acute care hospitals are expected to increase from within a day of referral to two weeks if current healthcare capacity remains unchanged. In addition, the bed occupancy rate for acute care and community hospitals is projected to reach 100 percent by 2023 and 2025 respectively. All interventions tested would either moderate these increases or decrease the bed occupancy rate for all care venues and wait times.