Abstract for: Using System Dynamics to model the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Botswana and Uganda
Uganda and Botswana present two interesting and contrasting cases in the AIDS epidemic. Systems dynamics models of the AIDS epidemic in Botswana and Uganda were created to examine the future development of the virus in both countries and evaluate existing and future policy measures. The effect of current and new policies such as abstinence only, educational campaigns, increased availability of anti-retroviral therapy (ARTs) and condoms, and circumcision were tested on key social and economic indicators. The most effective policy in both countries is a combination of scaling up prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT), condom use and availability, circumcision, and ART coverage. The epidemic in Botswana seems to have leveled out; therefore, alternative policies such as circumcision will be necessary to fight HIV in the future. In Uganda there is great need for improvement in dealing with the AIDS epidemic. The model shows that HIV prevalence will increase without drastic policy measures.