Abstract for: Assessing Future Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuels of China

The Chinese government has set an ambitious target to reduce the intensity of carbon emissions per unit GDP by 40 45% during 2005 to 2020. The T21 national development model for China was developed for the purpose of analyzing the effects of long-term national policies that relate to carbon emissions, loss of farm land, water shortage, energy security, and food security, and their contributions to this reduction target. The focus of this paper is on the policies that have substantial impacts on carbon emissions from fossil fuels. Four scenarios are developed with the model to simulate the future carbon emissions: 1) the BAU (business as usual) scenario, showing the likely results of continuing current policies; 2) the TECH (technology) scenario showing the effects of more investment in renewable energy sources and promoting more energy efficient technologies; 3) the BEHAVIOR scenario, showing how government tax and price policies, together with public education programs, would instigate behaviour changes towards more sustainable living; and 4) the TECH&BEHA scenario, which shows the results of combining scenarios 2 and 3. The scenario results show that the 40 - 45% carbon emission reduction for the period 2005 2020 is achievable.