Abstract for: Modeling Dynamic Transitions in the Global Air Transportation System

The air transportation system needs to change drastically if it is to transition into a sustainable state. The stakes for the needed technology-driven change – innovation –are extremely high for the lead adopters given the high cost of R&D in manufacturing and the need to change parts of the existing infrastructure and operational procedures if a significant improvement in high energy efficiency is to be achieved. We conduct a quantitative strategy assessment of different transition options using the Global Aviation Industry Dynamics Transition (GAIDT) system dynamics model of the industry and a composite indicator V (normalized strategy value), that combines the economic and environmental benefits of different strategies to test how such changes will cascade through the global aviation system accounting for airline and aircraft manufacturer competition across a variety of aircraft product lines. The GAIDT model exhibits advanced features of dynamic modularity, extensibility, autocalibration and a GUI. We found that the normalized strategy values will highly depend on the fuel prices. However, if the fuel prices continue to rise, any kind of innovation option is beneficial. When decoupled from fuel prices, early transition options are preferred and radical innovation is found more beneficial than incremental.