Abstract for: Model-based Policing to Fight High Impact Crime

This paper reports on a System Dynamics simulation project for the Dutch police. The aim of the project was to increase the effectiveness of their fight against high impact crimes, especially robberies and burglaries, through model-based decision support. The model developed for this project is used for multiple uses, namely to (i) support meetings of Chiefs of Police with regard to real world police interventions by allowing them to virtually discover un/intended consequences of these interventions through an online interface; (ii) test the effectiveness of suggested interventions under deep uncertainty, i.e. given thousands of plausible scenarios, as well as to identify real-world pilot studies that would be needed to reduce key uncertainties regarding the effectiveness of police interventions; and (iii) monitor and compare the effectiveness of real world and virtual interventions in order to improve formal and mental models regarding high impact crime system. Additionally, four teaching and testing cases on burglaries and robberies are provided in the appendix.