Abstract for: A system dynamics model to achieve sustainable production of oil in Iran

Oil Exporting Countries may encounter the problem of managing oil production because of changes in the volume of available oil resources and the depreciation of infrastructures. In Iran, on one hand, oil revenues are supposed to cover expenditure of socioeconomic development. On the other hand, based on statistics, its oil wells are in the middle of their life and the industry requires high investment to build-up and maintains infrastructures to produce at the current rate of production. In this paper, a model is presented to capture the realities and complexities of oil production industry. In the model, the oil sector is fragmented into four sectors including production, consumption, revenue and investment sectors. Finally, based on the results of the model, an investment policy to achieve the sustainable production of oil in Iran is proposed.