Abstract for: Energy Security Dynamics

As part of a process to model the emergence of strategic movements among actors, we investigate the interplay between nation state instability and energy security. We hypothesize that state instability leads to changes in energy production capacity utilization and to energy price volatility further fueling instability. We model the production, transport, and use of energy in an archetypical country setting focusing on oil and its derivatives. Additionally, we consider the effect that energy use and revenue goals have on utilization. Although the model is highly aggregate and stylized, we use publicly available data to populate model parameters and to characterize functional relationships between variables of interest.