Abstract for: System-Based Feedback Analysis of E-Mobility Diffusion in China

In the passenger car sector purchasing decisions are driven by economic factors and acceptance. Based on cost analysis, the factors which can be dedicated to different technologies are fuel costs and purchase price. The decision to buy a new car is always accompanied by a cost comparison of each alternative. This leads to a compilation of costs for each technology in terms of negative utility. The decision process is solved by a Logit-Model. The realization within a system dynamics model allows the modeling of feedback loops. As opposed to earlier studies on future car market in which the availability of key raw materials for alternative drives was not taken into account the model presented in this paper gives an example on how to simulate feedback effects from raw material markets on the diffusion of emerging technologies. For this purpose, taking cobalt as an example, the effect of increasing battery production on raw material demand and pricing is analyzed including the feedback of higher battery prices on the development of electro mobility. This is realized by simulating two scenarios with and without the raw material feedback loop and a subsequent comparison of the results.