Abstract for: Power Generation Capacity Planning Under Ecological, Security and Economic Criteria: The Mexican Case

There are increasing environmental concerns in México, as in many other countries, regarding the CO2 emissions tendency, due mainly, to the intensive use of fossil fuel based electric generation. Recently, several laws and amendments have been passed in Mexico with the objective of promoting non-fossil generation technologies, aiming to increase their relative participation in the energy portfolio mix. Although several mid and long term objectives in this regard have been established in Mexico, these would be hard to achieve if the investment capabilities should continue to be directed mainly to fossil fuel thermal technologies, like natural gas on combined cycle plants, and proportionally less, to investment in non-fossil technologies. This article presents and evaluates three scenarios based on a System Dynamics Model, to assess the non-fossil generation capacity investment and timing requirements, in order to achieve both ecological and safety strategic objectives, and at the same time satisfying the electric energy Mexican demand expectations.