Abstract for: Developing Scenarios for Deeply Uncertain Dynamically Complex Risks: Exploring Plausible Futures of Lyme Disease

Lyme disease poses an uncertain dynamic threat to many people and public health systems. However, rather different perspectives related to the societal impact of Lyme Disease exist. Thousands of plausible evolutions of lyme disease are generated using different System Dynamics models of Lyme Disease and are studied in this exploratory study with new data analysis techniques in order to assess the risk posed by Lyme disease, in this case to the Dutch population and the Dutch health care system. The risk is scored in the Dutch National Risk Assessment framework adapted to deeply uncertain dynamically complex risks, and mapped in a new type of risk diagram developed for uncertain complex risks in order to compare the risk posed by Lyme disease to many other plausible risks. Scenario discovery techniques are used to identify a small set of representative scenarios that could be used for subsequent capability analysis.