Abstract for: A System Simulation Model for Type 2 Diabetes in the Saskatoon Health Region

We describe a System Dynamics model for analysing trends and evaluating interventions with regards to type 2 diabetes. The model includes both normoglycemic and hyperglycemic components. The normoglycemic part is broken down according to weight into normal weight, overweight and obese stocks, all indexed by age, sex and ethnicity, the last consisting of Registered Indian and others. The hyperglycemic part consists of two streams, diagnosed and undiagnosed, both divided according to the severity of hyperglycemia and complications, starting with prediabetes, and with particular attention to progression of macrovascular complications. As for the normoglycemic section, all stocks in both streams are indexed according to age, sex and ethnicity. The model was carefully calibrated, using a methodology discussed here. Some projections and policy suggestions are presented.