Abstract for: Modeling the survival of Athenian owl tetradrachms struck in the period from 526 BC to 42 AD, from 526 BC to the present
The TETRA-model has been built to predict the modern occurrence of ancient Athenian tetradrachm silver coins in quantitative terms, based on their original minting volumes an antiquity and the processes of their loss and destruction, as well as the process of finding them in modern times. The conceptual model was developed as causal loop diagrams and flow charts, based on Athenian siver mining dynamics, the minting process, the circulation in trade and finance in ancient Athens, rates of wear and loss of coinage, corrosion of coins in the buried state, modern retrieval rates and dynamic turnover in the numismatic market, as well as deposits into collections and museums. A systems dynamics model was programmed in the STELLA modeling environment and implemented for 500 years of Athenian coin production (526 BC to 42 AD) and preservation and retrieval until the present (526 BC to 2010 AD). The TETRA model was tested against independent estimates of past and present coin volumes, treasure finds, museum stocks. The model seems to work well in tests against independent estimates. The approximate number of coins surviving until today for the different types such as archaic owls, classical owls, transitional owls, heterogeneous owls and new style owls were predicted well within the estimates derived through other means and museum inventories (r2=0.82).